We developed projections of water availability for the UK
This assessment was one of four projects commissioned to inform the second UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) Evidence Report, published in July 2016. We evaluated the contributing factors for the current levels of risk in water resource planning, and then projected these according to a selection of plausible climate, population, adaptation and environmental protection scenarios to 2100.
We developed a tool to help us develop, assess and present supply and demand projections for public water for the whole of the UK. These projections then fed into a GIS-based database to map and compare water availability, taking into account other key water users and including environmental demand, to identify potential future 'hot-spots'.
We have provided a realistic and transparent assessment of future risks based upon the latest available evidence that the UK Government can use to inform its adaptation planning process. Our assessment is consistent with existing national and sub-national population projections, water company resource-management planning, demand projections and policy, such as the Water White Paper. Our approach also followed assumptions on adaptation to be taken into account in estimating the level of future risk.
These new projections of water availability for the UK enable UK Government to assess the relative severity of impacts under a range of future scenarios.